Industry consolidation accelerates as craft closures outnumber openings
**Brewery closures outpaced openings for a second straight year**, underscoring consolidation pressure across the craft segment (Brewers Association, 2025). An industry midyear snapshot recorded operating brewery counts down year‑over‑year and pointed to sustained rationalization driven by retailer assortment tightening and cost pressures (Brewers Association, 2025). News coverage from U.S. outlets reported that 2025 saw substantially more closures than new launches, with midyear data reflecting the imbalance and softer volume trends (Newsmax, 2025). Source: Brewers Association, 2025, Newsmax, 2025 (Brewers Association, 2025; Newsmax, 2025).
Large brewers streamline portfolios amid volatile demand
**Major brewers continued portfolio reshaping and cost reductions**, with multinational groups trimming craft assets and announcing plant rationalizations as part of broader efficiency drives (VinePair, 2025). Public reporting and industry analysis noted planned closures of large-scale production sites and corporate headcount reductions at several leading firms as they adapt to slower beer demand and shifting category mixes (VinePair, 2025). Source: VinePair, 2025 (VinePair, 2025).
No‑ and low‑alcohol innovation outpaces traditional beer growth
**Non‑alcoholic beer registered explosive on‑premise growth**, driven by consumer moderation and health trends; on‑premise data showed year‑over‑year increases exceeding 30% for non‑alcoholic offerings, with particular strength in NA IPAs and stouts (CGA/Craft Brewing Business, 2025). Category specialists reported non‑alcoholic IPAs up roughly 170% and stouts up about 130% on premise, signaling meaningful product opportunity for craft brewers pivoting to lower‑ABV and alcohol‑free formulations (Craft Brewing Business, 2025). Source: Craft Brewing Business, 2025 (Craft Brewing Business, 2025).
Direct‑to‑consumer and premiumization remain central growth levers
**DTC channels and premium positioning are forecasted to underpin modest industry growth**, with market analysis projecting craft revenue expansion driven by e‑commerce, subscriptions and taproom sales, and a mid‑single digit to low‑single digit CAGR over the coming five years for segments that execute DTC well (IBISWorld, 2025). Premium styles and experiential offers continue to command higher price points even as overall volume softens (IBISWorld, 2025). Source: IBISWorld, 2025 (IBISWorld, 2025).
Draft beer and on‑premise draft distribution rebound
**Draft beer regained distribution share and on‑premise relevance**, with industry data pointing to growth in draft placement and a small but meaningful recovery in out‑of‑home draft volumes that many producers view as a route to rebuild brand engagement (Hop Culture/Brewers Association reporting, 2025). Observers highlight draft growth as a counterbalance to packaged fatigue in some urban and hospitality channels (Hop Culture, 2025). Source: Hop Culture, 2025 (Hop Culture, 2025).
Input markets and tariffs continue to pressure margins
**Packaging and input cost volatility remain significant headwinds**, with analyses warning that aluminum tariffs and supply fluctuations elevated can and materials costs over the year, forcing some brewers to absorb costs or reduce small‑batch runs (Packaging Digest, 2025). Brewers cited higher packaging and ingredient costs among the principal constraints on margin recovery (Packaging Digest, 2025). Source: Packaging Digest, 2025 (Packaging Digest, 2025).
Market outlook and strategic implications for brewers
The combined signals of consolidation, category rebalancing toward no‑ and low‑alcohol, growth of DTC and premium offerings, and persistent input cost pressure suggest a near‑term environment favoring operational efficiency, portfolio focus, and innovation in lower‑ABV and experiential formats (IBISWorld, 2025; Craft Brewing Business, 2025; Packaging Digest, 2025). Industry bodies and trade analysts note that adaptation to consumer health trends and tighter retail assortments will determine which producers stabilize and which exit (Brewers Association, 2025). Source: IBISWorld, 2025; Craft Brewing Business, 2025; Brewers Association, 2025 (IBISWorld, 2025; Craft Brewing Business, 2025; Brewers Association, 2025).
Source: Brewers Association, 2025, Craft Brewing Business, 2025, IBISWorld, 2025, VinePair, 2025, Packaging Digest, 2025, Newsmax, 2025, Hop Culture, 2025 (Brewers Association, 2025; Craft Brewing Business, 2025; IBISWorld, 2025; VinePair, 2025; Packaging Digest, 2025; Newsmax, 2025; Hop Culture, 2025).