Craft Beer Market Growth Defies On-Premise Challenges
The global craft beer market is projected to reach USD 329.7 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual rate of 8.74% from 2025 (IMARC Group, 2025). Europe currently leads the sector, accounting for over 38.1% of the market share in 2024. This expansion is driven by rising consumer demand for unique, flavorful, and locally brewed beers, as well as increased interest in beer tourism and innovative marketing strategies targeting millennials and health-conscious drinkers (IMARC Group, 2025).
On-Premise Beer Sales Continue to Decline
Despite the robust growth of the craft beer segment, on-premise beer sales are facing persistent headwinds. BeerBoard’s Q3 2025 report reveals a year-over-year decline of 1.8% in draft beer volume, following a steeper 8.5% drop in Q1 (BeerBoard, 2025). The trend is consistent across major events, with draft beer volumes down again on Thanksgiving Eve and during the Super Bowl, while packaged beer and ready-to-drink (RTD) options saw notable growth (BeerBoard, 2025).
Rogue Ales Closes After 37 Years
Rogue Ales & Spirits, one of Oregon’s most iconic breweries, abruptly shut down all operations on November 14, 2025, citing financial strain and a $545,000 debt (Beer Street Journal, 2025). The closure marks the end of a 37-year legacy and reflects broader industry challenges, with Oregon losing nearly 75 breweries, taprooms, or brewpubs since the pandemic (Lincoln Chronicle, 2025). The national craft beer market has declined by more than 4% in the past 16 months, largely due to supply chain disruptions, inflation, labor shortages, and a downward trend in overall beer consumption (Lincoln Chronicle, 2025).
Regulatory Changes Impact Hemp Beverages
A new federal law revises the definition of hemp, implementing strict potency limits that will effectively ban most hemp beverages on the market starting November 12, 2026 (Nutter, 2025). This change initiates a year-long transition period for a multi-billion dollar industry to adapt. Additionally, new legislation in California extends direct shipping privileges for small distillers and introduces new permits for craft distillers shipping directly to consumers (Nutter, 2025).
Health-Conscious and Non-Alcoholic Beer Trends Accelerate
Consumer preferences are shifting toward healthier options, with nearly half of Americans attempting to drink less in 2025 (Tastewise, 2025). Craft brewers are responding by expanding their offerings of low- and no-alcohol beers, which have seen explosive growth. Non-alcoholic beer sales on-premise grew by 33.7% year-over-year, with non-alcoholic IPAs and stouts up over 170% and 130% respectively (Craft Brewing Business, 2025). Breweries are also innovating with hybrid styles, fruited sours, and sustainable solutions to meet evolving consumer demands (Tastewise, 2025).
Regional Success Stories and Industry Resilience
Despite the challenges, some regions are thriving. North Carolina has emerged as the top beer state in the American South and ranks among the top 10 craft beer states nationwide (Carolina Journal, 2025). Colorado continues to maintain a strong brewing industry, with 494 craft breweries operating or having operated in 2025 (Gazette, 2025). These regional successes highlight the resilience and adaptability of the craft beer sector in the face of broader market headwinds.