Craft Beer Market Forecasts Solid Growth Despite Short-Term Headwinds
The craft beer market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.74% between 2025 and 2033, reaching a valuation of USD 329.7 billion by 2033. This growth is largely driven by the global increase in microbreweries and brewpubs, which foster local brewing innovation and enhance consumer connection to the brewing process. These small-scale establishments are supported by favorable government policies in many regions, facilitating expansion and greater consumer engagement with craft beer culture (IMARC Group, 2025).
Current U.S. Market Dynamics Show Mixed Performance
In the U.S., craft beer is experiencing a contraction in production and brewery numbers in 2025. According to the Brewers Association Midyear Report, as of June 2025, the total count of craft breweries decreased by 1%, with microbreweries declining by 3%. Volume production dropped an estimated 5% year-over-year, with distribution-focused breweries declining the most. On the other hand, taprooms and brewpubs demonstrated greater resilience and growth potential, outperforming distributed products modestly (Craft Brewing Business, 2025).
Nearly half (49%) of small craft breweries producing under 1,000 barrels per year reported production growth, highlighting the resilience of hyperlocal brewery models. Consumer trends indicate wider, though less frequent, craft beer consumption among Americans, rising to 9.8% of legal-age adults sampling craft beer in the past 30 days, compared to 6.6% in 2013 (Craft Brewing Business, 2025).
Shifting Consumer Preferences: Health, Premiumization, and Value
Health consciousness is reshaping beer consumption. Reports note a rising demand for low-alcohol and non-alcoholic craft beer options, fueled by consumers aiming to moderate alcohol intake without sacrificing taste. Health-conscious consumers, now projecting a 0.5% annual rise in related indexes, are attracting brewers to expand light and non-alcoholic lines, aligning with growing wellness trends (IMARC Group, 2025; CGA by NIQ, 2025).
Premiumization continues to drive consumer choices, with approximately 20% opting for premium-quality beverages and unique craft offerings. However, value remains a crucial purchase consideration, as nearly half of on-premise drinkers look for good value and many seek deals and promotions. Combining high-quality beer with appealing food pairings is also emerging as a key strategy for craft brewers to engage consumers in on-premise venues (CGA by NIQ, 2025).
Cannabis-Infused Beverages Emerge as a New Growth Frontier
An emerging trend in the alcoholic beverage segment is the rise of cannabis-infused drinks. In the United States, cannabis consumption has doubled recently, with 78 million Americans reporting use. Cannabis is increasingly viewed as a healthier alternative for relaxation and hangover avoidance, contributing to a rapid rise in cannabis-infused beverages sales—currently tracked at over $70 million. Legal changes, such as Minnesota’s recent law permitting taprooms to serve THC-infused drinks, further integrate cannabis products into traditional beer markets (Hop Culture, 2025).
While concrete sales data remains limited, industry observers predict cannabis-infused and hemp-based beverages, including delta-8 and delta-9 THC drinks, will carve out a significant market share alongside traditional and non-alcoholic craft beers in coming years (Hop Culture, 2025).
Industry Adjustments Amid Market Saturation and Consumer Fatigue
After decades of rapid expansion, the craft beer industry faces a market maturity stage with slight volume declines and increased consolidation. Larger players continue acquiring smaller breweries as distributors streamline offerings, challenging many craft brands to maintain shelf space. Craft brewers are responding by focusing on proven products and expanding taproom experiences, sometimes integrating cocktails and kid-friendly options to broaden appeal beyond beer alone (OhBEV, 2025).
Industry experts advise craft brewers to lean into local community ties, flexible small-batch production, and data-driven decisions to survive the current competitive landscape marked by shifting consumer behaviors and economic pressures (Craft Brewing Business, 2025; OhBEV, 2025).
Approachability and Authenticity Define Future Craft Beer Trends
As the novelty and extremes of craft beer innovation lose some consumer appeal, breweries increasingly revert to traditional, approachable styles that emphasize quality and authenticity over gimmickry. Industry insiders agree that as craft beer matures, adaptability and a professional business mindset are key to thriving in a more complex and competitive marketplace (SevenFifty Daily, 2025).
This evolving landscape affords opportunities for breweries that innovate around health-conscious products, premium experiences, and evolving consumer priorities, maintaining craft beer’s place as a dynamic and valued beverage category worldwide.