US Craft Beer Closures Surge as 2026 Trends Shift to Low-ABV, Lagers and Supply Chain Crunch
The independent beer industry in America reported more brewery closures than openings for the first time, marking a pivotal shift amid ongoing economic pressures (thedrinksbusiness.com, February 17, 2025).
Craft Sector Faces Closures in Key States
Challenges began with the pandemic, including lockdowns, rising raw material costs, and shipping expenses, as national beer sales dropped 2% (thedrinksbusiness.com, February 17, 2025). Colorado sales slumped 3%, hitting its renowned craft scene hard (thedrinksbusiness.com, February 17, 2025). Brewers Association president Bart Watson noted pandemic ripples affected supply chains and consumer patterns (thedrinksbusiness.com, February 17, 2025). Closure rates hit hardest in high-density states like California and Pennsylvania (thedrinksbusiness.com, February 17, 2025).
In Arizona, mirroring national trends, craft brewers adapt by diversifying menus beyond beer (Phoenix New Times via thedrinksbusiness.com, February 17, 2025). Kitsune Brewing Co owner Tyler Smith emphasized reading market signals to stay competitive (thedrinksbusiness.com, February 17, 2025).
Non-Alcoholic and Low-ABV Beers Drive Growth
Non-alcoholic beer emerges as a bright spot, with craft NA sales soaring 30% year-over-year in early 2024, and nearly half of craft breweries now offering NA or low-ABV options, up from 8% previously (ohbev.com, recent forecast). U.S. NA beer volumes jumped 111% from 2021 to 2025 (ohbev.com, recent forecast). Global players like AB InBev, Heineken, and Budweiser invest in 0.0 portfolios, while craft ventures like Heineken’s Lagunitas Hi-Fi Hops target hybrid drinks (ohbev.com, recent forecast).
Research shows nearly half of Americans aiming to drink less in 2026 fuels low and no-ABV demand (tastewise.io, recent trends). Breweries lower prices on NA beers despite expansion, signaling strategic pricing in a growing segment (beervanablog.com, recent).
Lager Renaissance and Value Focus Define 2026
The lager trend matures into premium-ization and diversification, prioritizing drinkability and quality over fads in a “Great Re-Balancing” (academy.getbackbar.com, 2026 trends). Consumers seek **premium value**—worth the price—not cheap options, with data showing demand for quality over quantity (academy.getbackbar.com, 2026 trends). On-premise insights confirm two-thirds prefer less but better beer (CGA by NIQ via academy.getbackbar.com, 2026 trends).
Hyper-local models thrive for small breweries, alongside authentic imports, blending community support with global appeal (academy.getbackbar.com, 2026 trends). Technique-driven brewing gains traction, with consumers interested in processing details for distinctive flavors (innova marketinsights.com, 2026 trends).
Supply Constraints Tighten for 2026
Ball Corporation announced 2026 can production sold out, pressuring brewers reliant on metal packaging (Brewers Association, recent update). Rising tariffs on equipment, kegs, cans, hops, and malt squeeze craft operations, while retailers cut SKUs favoring core brands (ohbev.com, recent forecast). Domestic producers emphasize local supply to compete (ohbev.com, recent forecast).
Market forecasts predict slow single-digit growth at ~4% CAGR through 2032, positioning 2026 as a reset year focused on value and innovation (ohbev.com, recent forecast). Craft employment has grown, but higher costs challenge small operations (tastewise.io, recent trends).
Industry Adaptations and Collaborations
Brewers respond with collaborations, festivals, and community events, building lasting relationships (thedrinksbusiness.com, February 17, 2025). Examples include Valley Beer holding pints at $6 despite inflation (Phoenix New Times via thedrinksbusiness.com, February 17, 2025). Forward moves like hyper-localization, sustainable solutions, and hybrid styles shape the outlook (tastewise.io, recent trends).
Molson Coors schedules 2025 earnings release today, signaling scrutiny on financials amid shifts (Molson Coors IR, February 18, 2026).