Beer Industry 2026 Trends: Craft Closures, Lager Boom, Low-ABV Surge and Great Reset
The craft beer sector enters 2026 amid a **great reset**, marked by slowing growth, rising closures, and strategic shifts toward premiumization and non-alcoholic innovations (Protis Global, 2026).
Craft Brewery Closures Outpace Openings
In 2024, the US saw **399 brewery closures** compared to 335 new openings, marking the first net decline in over a decade (The Drinks Business, 2025; Brewers Association via Protis Global, 2026). This consolidation reflects maturing market dynamics, with operational costs rising and beer sales dipping nationally by 2% post-pandemic (The Drinks Business, 2025). States like California and Pennsylvania, with high brewery densities, report the highest closure rates (The Drinks Business, 2025).
National craft volumes fell **5% in 2025**, following prior drops of 4% and 1%, exacerbating February sales slumps where nearly 50% of breweries log their slowest periods (Brewers Association via Sip Magazine, 2026; Birrup, 2026). Despite challenges, craft maintained over **13% US market share** in 2024, with employment growth offsetting volume declines (Brewers Association via Tastewise, 2026).
Lager Renaissance and Premium Value Shift
Craft lagers mature into **premium, sessionable staples**, driven by consumer demand for drinkability over complexity amid economic pressures (Backbar Academy, 2026; Birrup, 2026). Bar data shows surging interest in **West Coast IPAs** with bitter, piney notes alongside low-ABV hazy variants at 4-5.5% ABV (Backbar Academy, 2026).
On-premise trends reveal two-thirds of buyers prioritize **superior experiences over volume**, rejecting subpar craft pints in favor of value-aligned quality (CGA by NIQ via Backbar Academy, 2026). This **premium value equation** defines 2026, where craft labels alone no longer justify high prices (Backbar Academy, 2026).
Low and No-ABV Beers Fuel Health-Driven Growth
Nearly half of Americans plan to reduce alcohol intake in 2026, propelling **low-ABV and non-alcoholic craft options** (Tastewise, 2026; Birrup, 2026). US NA beer sales jumped **111% by volume from 2021 to 2025**, with craft NA volumes rising 30% year-over-year in early 2024 (OH Bev, 2026).
Nearly half of craft breweries now offer NA or low-ABV beers, up from 8% previously, as brewers invest in specialized equipment for premium extensions (Protis Global, 2026; OH Bev, 2026). Global players like AB InBev, Heineken, and Budweiser expand 0.0 portfolios, blending craft styles with wellness trends (OH Bev, 2026).
Hyper-Localization and Hybrid Innovations
**Hyper-localization** gains traction as neighborhood breweries source from local farms for hops, fruits, and herbs, capitalizing on regional flavors (Tastewise, 2026; Backbar Academy, 2026). Small hyper-local operations thrive against regional struggles (Backbar Academy, 2026).
Hybrid styles like **fruited sours**, smoothie beers, and malt-based sodas emerge, alongside wild fermentation and limited releases for exclusivity (Tastewise, 2026; Birrup, 2026). Pasteurization sheds craft stigma to extend shelf life for lagers and non-alcs in distribution (Escarpment Labs, 2026).
Industry Unity and Style Updates
The International Women’s Collaboration Brew Day adopts **’Unite Belonging’** as its 2026 theme, partnering with SIBA to foster global brewery collaborations and fundraising (The Drinks Business, 2025). Meanwhile, the **Brewers Association released 2026 Beer Style Guidelines**, adding Rice Lager and updating Belgian and German styles (Brewers Association, 2026).
Global beer maintains a **4% CAGR** in value, positioning 2026 as a reset year focused on sustainable growth, taproom diversification, and adjacent categories (Protis Global, 2026; OH Bev, 2026). Breweries adapt via in-house testing, community events, and value pricing like fixed $6 pints (Phoenix New Times via The Drinks Business, 2025). (Protis Global, February 2026, https://protisglobal.com/articles/beers-great-reset-how-the-industry-is-leaning-into-2026) (Tastewise, 2026, https://tastewise.io/blog/craft-beer-trends) (Birrup, February 5, 2026, https://birrup.com/2026/02/05/beer-industry-trends-2026-craft-brewers-face-tariffs-lager-boom-and-low-abv-surge/) (Backbar Academy, 2026, https://academy.getbackbar.com/2026-beer-trends) (The Drinks Business, February 2025, https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2025/02/us-craft-beer-sector-sees-more-closures-than-openings/) (OH Bev, 2026, https://www.ohbev.com/blog/beer-market-forecasts-and-trends) (Brewers Association, 2026, https://www.brewersassociation.org/association-news/2026-beer-style-guidelines-now-available/)