Craft Beer Closures Surge in 2025: Volume Declines, Rogue Ales Shuts Down Amid Market Headwinds
Craft beer volume continued to weaken in the second half of 2025, with scan data showing a 5% decline in the first half and further softening in Q3 (Shanken News Daily, December 16, 2025, https://www.shankennewsdaily.com/2025/12/16/38833/craft-beer-volume-slows-further-in-second-half/). The Brewers Association reported 268 new brewery openings against 434 closures year-to-date, marking the second consecutive year where closings outpaced openings (Shanken News Daily, December 16, 2025, https://www.shankennewsdaily.com/2025/12/16/38833/craft-beer-volume-slows-further-in-second-half/). Closures represent just 4.4% of total operating breweries, a low figure compared to broader leisure and hospitality sectors (Shanken News Daily, December 16, 2025, https://www.shankennewsdaily.com/2025/12/16/38833/craft-beer-volume-slows-further-in-second-half/).
Rogue Ales Abrupt Closure Shocks Industry
Rogue Ales & Spirits, producer of **Dead Guy Ale**, abruptly shut down all operations on Friday after 37 years, citing financial strain (Beer Street Journal, December 2025, https://beerstreetjournal.com). The sudden closure sent ripples through the craft beer community, highlighting vulnerabilities even for established brands.
Sycamore Brewing Faces Rapid Collapse
Sycamore Brewing, once Charlotte’s largest brewery since 2014, is spiraling amid a scandal involving co-founder Justin Brigham’s felony sex-crime charges (Charlotte Ledger, December 16, 2025, https://charlotteledger.substack.com/p/the-rapid-fall-of-sycamore-brewing). Taprooms emptied, airport outpost closure looms, and distribution partners pulled back, threatening the brewery’s survival despite efforts to distance from Brigham (Charlotte Ledger, December 16, 2025, https://charlotteledger.substack.com/p/the-rapid-fall-of-sycamore-brewing).
Global Craft Market Projects Strong Growth
Despite U.S. challenges, the global craft beer market reached **USD 142.6 billion** in 2024 and is forecast to hit **USD 329.7 billion** by 2033 at a **CAGR of 8.74%** from 2025-2033 (IMARC Group, 2025, https://www.imarcgroup.com/craft-beer-market). Europe holds over 38.1% market share, driven by demand for unique flavors, local brews, beer tourism, and millennial-targeted marketing (IMARC Group, 2025, https://www.imarcgroup.com/craft-beer-market).
On-Premise Trends Favor Innovation
U.S. on-premise consumers in early 2025 show 25% planning to moderate alcohol intake and a third seeking healthier options, boosting **non-alcoholic beer** growth by 33.7% year-over-year (CGA by NIQ, 2025, https://www.craftbrewingbusiness.com/featured/navigating-the-u-s-on-premise-consumer-in-2025-key-insights-for-craft-brewers/). Non-alcoholic IPAs and stouts surged over 170% and 130% respectively, while premiumization sees 20% opting for higher-quality drinks (CGA by NIQ, 2025, https://www.craftbrewingbusiness.com/featured/navigating-the-u-s-on-premise-consumer-in-2025-key-insights-for-craft-brewers/). Draft beer dominates at 52.3% of on-premise volumes, up 8.1% in distribution (CGA by NIQ, 2025, https://www.hopculture.com/top-craft-beer-trends-2025/).
Brewers Association Notes Persistent Headwinds
Total U.S. craft breweries fell 1% to 9,269 by June 2025, as closures outpaced openings amid changing consumer behaviors, retailer rationalization, inflation, and competition (Brewers Association, 2025, https://www.brewersassociation.org/association-news/2025-midyear-report/). The 2025 Year in Beer report underscores these compounding pressures (Brewers Association, 2025, https://www.brewersassociation.org/association-news/the-2025-year-in-beer/).
Opportunities in Non-Alc and Premium Segments
Craft brewers are pivoting to low- and no-ABV options, family-friendly taprooms, and unique experiences to capture health-conscious consumers (CGA by NIQ, 2025, https://www.craftbrewingbusiness.com/featured/navigating-the-u-s-on-premise-consumer-in-2025-key-insights-for-craft-brewers/). Distribution expansions, like Rhinestone entering Sprouts Farmers Market, signal retail adaptation (Craft Brewing Business, 2025, https://www.craftbrewingbusiness.com/featured/distribution-update-rhinestone-enters-retail-with-sprouts-farmers-market-moves-from-great-lakes-beer-girl-and-more/).