The craft beer industry in the United States is navigating a challenging landscape as of mid-2025. The number of operating craft breweries dropped by 1% compared to last year, totaling 9,269 establishments as of June 2025, with closures outpacing new openings by 3% (Craft Brewing Business, 2025). This contraction is echoed in overall beer shipments, which declined by 5.9% through May 2025, equating to nearly 3.7 million fewer barrels than the previous year (Craft Brewing Business, 2025).
The decline is part of broader headwinds affecting the beverage alcohol sector, with spirits and wine also experiencing volume reductions of 4.2% and 7.7% respectively over the past 12 months (Craft Brewing Business, 2025). Distributor demand remains depressed, with the June 2025 Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) for craft beer scoring just 15 — far below the expansionary threshold of 50 and representing a continuing contraction trend from scores of 27 and 20 in 2024 and early 2025 (Craft Brewing Business, 2025). This suggests wholesalers are hesitant to invest in mid-tier craft beer offerings, pressing breweries to focus more on taproom sales and local partnerships to sustain revenues.
Amidst these challenges, positive long-term growth prospects persist. The global craft beer market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.74% from 2025 to 2033, potentially reaching USD 329.7 billion by 2033 (IMARC Group, 2024). This growth is fueled by the expansion of microbreweries, brewpubs, and taproom breweries, which have increased consumer engagement with craft beer and fostered innovation. The Brewers Association reported that in 2023, the U.S. featured 2,071 microbreweries, 3,467 brewpubs, and 3,900 taproom breweries, supporting a vibrant craft beer community (IMARC Group, 2024).
Changing consumer preferences further shape the market’s evolution. Rising health consciousness is driving demand for low-alcohol and non-alcoholic craft beer variants, aligning with wellness trends that are expected to increase by 0.5% to an index score of 111.4 in 2024-25 (IMARC Group, 2024). The development of lighter, artisanal beers enables craft brewers to attract consumers moderating alcohol intake without sacrificing flavor depth.
Another notable trend is the emergence of cannabis-infused beverages as a complementary segment to craft beer. With some states like Minnesota legalizing THC-infused drinks in taprooms, this “fifth category” of beverages is gaining prominence. Cannabis drinks accounted for over $70 million in sales recently, appealing to consumers seeking alternatives to alcohol, especially younger demographics where nearly 78 million Americans report cannabis consumption (Hop Culture, 2025). This crossover presents both a challenge and opportunity for craft brewers in adjusting their portfolio strategies.
Despite these consumer-driven innovations, established brands also adapt strategically. Yuengling plans a summer expansion into Michigan through a joint venture with Molson Coors, indicating continued investment by large brewers in regional markets (VinePair, 2025). Meanwhile, companies like Sapporo-Stone Brewing have announced workforce reductions in response to operational pressures (VinePair, 2025).
In the on-premise sector, consumer engagement remains solid, with over 75% of surveyed consumers dining out and half frequenting bars in early 2025. Premiumization and health-conscious consumption are key trends here, with a growing proportion of consumers opting for higher-quality or lower-ABV beer options (Craft Brewing Business, 2025).
The industry’s focus going forward will likely emphasize leaner portfolios, enhanced local engagement, and innovative products catering to evolving tastes. Balancing operational efficiencies against consumer demand for novelty and wellness will be critical as craft beer navigates a competitive and transforming marketplace in 2025.