The US craft beer industry is navigating a complex landscape in 2025, with a notable decline in overall brewery numbers and production volume, yet an encouraging uptick in growth sentiment among smaller on-site craft brewers. Recent data published by the Brewers Association and market analytics from Nielsen IQ reveal a nuanced picture of the sector’s current state and emerging trends.
According to the Brewers Association’s midyear survey and volume estimates, the craft beer segment is projected to contract by approximately 5% year-over-year compared to 2024. This decline reflects a reduction in the number of operational breweries in the US, coupled with a slightly larger drop in total production volume (Brewers Association, 2025). However, craft breweries focusing on on-site business models, such as taprooms and brewpubs, have slightly outperformed those relying on distribution models by 1-2% in volume for the first half of the year. This suggests a consumer preference for experiential drinking environments remains robust despite broader market headwinds.
Market data from Nielsen IQ confirms a 4.1% decrease in craft beer volume in the first half of 2025, almost parallel to the 4.2% decline observed in the overall beer category (Nielsen IQ, 2025). This decline is pronounced especially in the off-trade, where craft beers face intense competition for shrinking shelf space due to retailer and wholesaler rationalisation. Consumers cutting back on spending and shifting preferences also contribute to this contraction in retail sales.
Despite these challenges, optimism prevails particularly among smaller brewers operating taprooms and brewpubs, who report an uptick in direct-to-consumer sales. These venues benefit from consumer trends favoring locally crafted and premiumized products that offer unique flavor profiles and social experiences. The on-site model’s resilience contrasts with distributed brewers like microbreweries and regional producers who have not fared as well amid the tightening market and increased operational costs.
The evolving consumer landscape also shows a growing interest in innovative and premium-flavored beers, driving demand for unique offerings in the craft segment. This aligns with a broader 2025 market trend toward premiumization and health-conscious consumption habits, with many consumers seeking higher-quality, flavor-forward beer options while balancing moderation in alcohol intake (Brewers Association, 2025; CGA by NIQ, 2025).
Experts highlight that key opportunities for craft brewers lie in capitalizing on direct engagement through taproom experiences, creative new styles, and leveraging data-driven promotional activities to enhance brand connection and market share. Additionally, premium craft beers coupled with food pairings in on-premise venues continue to attract consumers looking for superior drinking experiences (CGA by NIQ, 2025).
In summary, while the US craft beer industry faces significant volume and brewery count declines in 2025, the resilience and modest growth in on-site sales models suggest a shift toward immersive, premium craft beer experiences as a path forward for many brewers. This bifurcation between the distribution and on-site channels underscores the importance of agility and consumer engagement in today’s dynamic market.